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Moss vs Fredrikstad — 1. Division 2018

Moss
Moss
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
11/5/20231. Division1. Division · Round 29Melløs Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Moss42%
×Draw24%
Fredrikstad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moss
1.62
Fredrikstad
1.42

Moss creates 14% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 46 away

creates per match

Moss
1.81
Fredrikstad
1.54

allows per match

Moss
1.30
Fredrikstad
1.43

finishing

Moss+0.00on par
Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Moss or draw
66%
Moss or Fredrikstad
76%
Draw or Fredrikstad
58%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+
21%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals
80%
Moss 2+ goals
48%
Moss 3+ goals
22%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
76%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
41%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)
56%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 1.81 + Fredrikstad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.62

Fredrikstad attack 1.54 + Moss defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moss scores more
42%
level
24%
Fredrikstad scores more
34%

Moss at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moss vs Fredrikstad

Moss and Fredrikstad drew 2-2 in 1. Division on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Melløs Stadion in Moss.