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Moss vs Floro — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Moss
Moss
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Floro
Floro
8/15/20202. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Melløs Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Moss55%
×Draw21%
Floro24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moss
2.18
Floro
1.40

Moss creates 56% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

creates per match

Moss
1.76
Floro
1.20

allows per match

Moss
1.59
Floro
2.60

finishing

Moss+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Moss or draw
76%
Moss or Floro
79%
Draw or Floro
45%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+
33%
Floro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals
89%
Moss 2+ goals
64%
Moss 3+ goals
37%
Floro 1+ goals
75%
Floro 2+ goals
41%
Floro 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)
69%
Floro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

Floro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 1.76 + Floro defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.18

Floro attack 1.20 + Moss defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Moss scores more
55%
level
21%
Floro scores more
24%

Moss at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Moss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moss 0 – 1 Floro

Floro beat Moss 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Melløs Stadion in Moss.