Mosjøen 2–0 Tiller: Result & Stats

Mosjøen

FT

2 – 0

Tiller

6/3/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 8Kippermoen gress 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mosjøen46%

×Draw20%

Tiller34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MosjøenExpected goals in this matchTiller

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

2.04

Mosjøen

2.38

Tiller

2.04

Mosjøen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

2.54

creates per match

2.00

2.08

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Mosjøen

2.54

Tiller

2.00

allows per match

Mosjøen

2.08

Tiller

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mosjøen+0.00on par

Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosjøen ↓

Tiller →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Mosjøen or draw

66%

Mosjøen or Tiller

80%

Draw or Tiller

54%

Winning margin

Mosjøen wins by 2+

28%

Tiller wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mosjøen 1+ goals

91%

Mosjøen 2+ goals

68%

Mosjøen 3+ goals

42%

Tiller 1+ goals

87%

Tiller 2+ goals

60%

Tiller 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Mosjøen (draw refunded)

58%

Tiller (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosjøen at home — creates 2.54, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosjøen attack 2.54 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.38

Tiller attack 2.00 + Mosjøen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mosjøen scores more

46%

level

20%

Tiller scores more

34%

Mosjøen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mosjøen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff