Mosjøen 1–3 Strømsgodset II: Result & Stats

Mosjøen

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Strømsgodset II

9/22/2024

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 22Kippermoen gress 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mosjøen33%

×Draw18%

Strømsgodset II49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MosjøenExpected goals in this matchStrømsgodset II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

2.77

Mosjøen

2.27

Strømsgodset II

2.77

Strømsgodset II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.31

creates per match

2.23

3.31

allows per match

3.23

creates per match

Mosjøen

1.31

Strømsgodset II

2.23

allows per match

Mosjøen

3.31

Strømsgodset II

3.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mosjøen+0.00on par

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosjøen ↓

Strømsgodset II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–35%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Mosjøen or draw

51%

Mosjøen or Strømsgodset II

82%

Draw or Strømsgodset II

67%

Winning margin

Mosjøen wins by 2+

18%

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Mosjøen 1+ goals

90%

Mosjøen 2+ goals

66%

Mosjøen 3+ goals

39%

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals

94%

Strømsgodset II 2+ goals

76%

Strømsgodset II 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Mosjøen (draw refunded)

40%

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosjøen at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Strømsgodset II away — creates 2.23, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosjøen attack 1.31 + Strømsgodset II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.27

Strømsgodset II attack 2.23 + Mosjøen defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mosjøen scores more

33%

level

18%

Strømsgodset II scores more

49%

Strømsgodset II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff