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Mosjøen vs Stabæk II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Mosjøen
Mosjøen
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Stabæk II
Stabæk II
8/11/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 16Kippermoen gress 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mosjøen24%
×Draw18%
Stabæk II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosjøen
1.76
Stabæk II
2.74

Stabæk II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mosjøen
1.31
Stabæk II
2.16

allows per match

Mosjøen
3.31
Stabæk II
2.21

finishing

Mosjøen+0.00on par
Stabæk II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosjøen ↓

Stabæk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Mosjøen or draw
42%
Mosjøen or Stabæk II
82%
Draw or Stabæk II
76%

Winning margin

Mosjøen wins by 2+
11%
Stabæk II wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Mosjøen 1+ goals
83%
Mosjøen 2+ goals
52%
Mosjøen 3+ goals
26%
Stabæk II 1+ goals
93%
Stabæk II 2+ goals
75%
Stabæk II 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Mosjøen (draw refunded)
29%
Stabæk II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosjøen at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Stabæk II away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosjøen attack 1.31 + Stabæk II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.76

Stabæk II attack 2.16 + Mosjøen defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mosjøen scores more
24%
level
18%
Stabæk II scores more
58%

Stabæk II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mosjøen vs Stabæk II

Stabæk II beat Mosjøen 7-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Kippermoen gress 1 in Mosjøen/Vefsn.