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Mosjøen vs Rana — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Mosjøen
Mosjøen
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Rana
Rana
K. Rade 90', 87' (pen)
A. Nordeng 51'
F. Rise 40'
K. Gronning 8'
10/29/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 26Kippermoen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mosjøen42%
×Draw20%
Rana39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosjøen
2.31
Rana
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mosjøen
2.54
Rana
2.38

allows per match

Mosjøen
2.08
Rana
2.08

finishing

Mosjøen+0.00on par
Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosjøen ↓

Rana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Mosjøen or draw
61%
Mosjøen or Rana
80%
Draw or Rana
58%

Winning margin

Mosjøen wins by 2+
24%
Rana wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mosjøen 1+ goals
90%
Mosjøen 2+ goals
67%
Mosjøen 3+ goals
40%
Rana 1+ goals
89%
Rana 2+ goals
65%
Rana 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Mosjøen (draw refunded)
52%
Rana (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosjøen at home — creates 2.54, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Rana away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosjøen attack 2.54 + Rana defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.31

Rana attack 2.38 + Mosjøen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mosjøen scores more
42%
level
20%
Rana scores more
39%

Mosjøen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mosjøen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
K. Gronning
40'
F. Rise
51'
A. Nordeng
87'
K. RadePenalty
90'
K. Rade

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Mosjøen 0–5 Rana

Rana beat Mosjøen 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 29, 2023.

Goals: K. Gronning (8'), F. Rise (40'), A. Nordeng (51'), K. Rade (87' pen, 90').

The match was played at Kippermoen kunstgress in Mosjøen/Vefsn.