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Mosjøen vs Nardo — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Mosjøen
Mosjøen
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Nardo
Nardo
4/13/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 2Kippermoen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mosjøen13%
×Draw16%
Nardo71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosjøen
1.11
Nardo
2.77

Nardo creates 150% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mosjøen
1.31
Nardo
2.23

allows per match

Mosjøen
3.31
Nardo
0.92

finishing

Mosjøen+0.00on par
Nardo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosjøen ↓

Nardo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mosjøen or draw
29%
Mosjøen or Nardo
84%
Draw or Nardo
87%

Winning margin

Mosjøen wins by 2+
5%
Nardo wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Mosjøen 1+ goals
67%
Mosjøen 2+ goals
30%
Mosjøen 3+ goals
10%
Nardo 1+ goals
94%
Nardo 2+ goals
76%
Nardo 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Mosjøen (draw refunded)
15%
Nardo (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosjøen at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Nardo away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosjøen attack 1.31 + Nardo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nardo attack 2.23 + Mosjøen defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Mosjøen scores more
13%
level
16%
Nardo scores more
71%

Nardo at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Mosjøen 1–5 Nardo

Nardo beat Mosjøen 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Kippermoen kunstgress in Mosjøen/Vefsn.