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Mosjøen vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Mosjøen
Mosjøen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
9/9/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 19Kippermoen gress 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mosjøen53%
×Draw19%
Kristiansund II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosjøen
2.45
Kristiansund II
1.73

Mosjøen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mosjøen
2.54
Kristiansund II
1.38

allows per match

Mosjøen
2.08
Kristiansund II
2.35

finishing

Mosjøen+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosjøen ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Mosjøen or draw
73%
Mosjøen or Kristiansund II
81%
Draw or Kristiansund II
47%

Winning margin

Mosjøen wins by 2+
33%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mosjøen 1+ goals
91%
Mosjøen 2+ goals
70%
Mosjøen 3+ goals
44%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
82%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
52%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mosjøen (draw refunded)
66%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosjøen at home — creates 2.54, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosjøen attack 2.54 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.45

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Mosjøen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mosjøen scores more
53%
level
19%
Kristiansund II scores more
27%

Mosjøen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mosjøen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Mosjøen 4–1 Kristiansund II

Mosjøen beat Kristiansund II 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Kippermoen gress 1 in Mosjøen/Vefsn.