Mosjøen 3–1 Bodø / Glimt II: Result & Stats

Mosjøen

FT

3 – 1

Bodø / Glimt II

4/16/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 2Kippermoen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mosjøen59%

×Draw18%

Bodø / Glimt II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MosjøenExpected goals in this matchBodø / Glimt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.68

Mosjøen

2.71

Bodø / Glimt II

1.68

Mosjøen creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.54

creates per match

1.27

2.08

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Mosjøen

2.54

Bodø / Glimt II

1.27

allows per match

Mosjøen

2.08

Bodø / Glimt II

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mosjøen+0.00on par

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosjøen ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Mosjøen or draw

77%

Mosjøen or Bodø / Glimt II

82%

Draw or Bodø / Glimt II

41%

Winning margin

Mosjøen wins by 2+

39%

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mosjøen 1+ goals

93%

Mosjøen 2+ goals

75%

Mosjøen 3+ goals

50%

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

81%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

50%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Mosjøen (draw refunded)

72%

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosjøen at home — creates 2.54, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosjøen attack 2.54 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.71

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.27 + Mosjøen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mosjøen scores more

59%

level

18%

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

23%

Mosjøen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mosjøen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff