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Mosconia vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mosconia
Mosconia
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Tuilla
Tuilla
1/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Campo Sintetico El Casal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mosconia41%
×Draw27%
Tuilla32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosconia
1.31
Tuilla
1.12

Mosconia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mosconia
1.17
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Mosconia
1.07
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Mosconia+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosconia ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mosconia or draw
68%
Mosconia or Tuilla
73%
Draw or Tuilla
59%

Winning margin

Mosconia wins by 2+
19%
Tuilla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mosconia 1+ goals
73%
Mosconia 2+ goals
38%
Mosconia 3+ goals
14%
Tuilla 1+ goals
67%
Tuilla 2+ goals
31%
Tuilla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mosconia (draw refunded)
56%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosconia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosconia attack 1.17 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Mosconia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mosconia scores more
41%
level
27%
Tuilla scores more
32%

Mosconia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mosconia vs Tuilla

Tuilla beat Mosconia 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Sintetico El Casal in Grado.