Mosconia 1–0 Siero: Result & Stats

Mosconia

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Siero

4/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mosconia46%

×Draw28%

Siero26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MosconiaExpected goals in this matchSiero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.91

Mosconia

1.31

Siero

0.91

Mosconia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 46 away

1.17

creates per match

0.74

1.07

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Mosconia

1.17

Siero

0.74

allows per match

Mosconia

1.07

Siero

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mosconia+0.00on par

Siero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosconia ↓

Siero →

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mosconia or draw

74%

Mosconia or Siero

72%

Draw or Siero

54%

Winning margin

Mosconia wins by 2+

21%

Siero wins by 2+

Team goals

Mosconia 1+ goals

73%

Mosconia 2+ goals

38%

Mosconia 3+ goals

14%

Siero 1+ goals

60%

Siero 2+ goals

23%

Siero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mosconia (draw refunded)

64%

Siero (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mosconia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Siero away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mosconia attack 1.17 + Siero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Siero attack 0.74 + Mosconia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mosconia scores more

46%

level

28%

Siero scores more

26%

Mosconia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff