Mosconia 2–1 Roces: Result & Stats

Mosconia

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Roces

12/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Mosconia53%

×Draw26%

Roces21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MosconiaExpected goals in this matchRoces

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.88

Mosconia

1.55

Roces

0.88

Mosconia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 36 away

1.17

creates per match

0.69

1.07

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Mosconia

1.17

Roces

0.69

allows per match

Mosconia

1.07

Roces

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mosconia+0.00on par

Roces+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosconia ↓

Roces →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mosconia or draw

79%

Mosconia or Roces

74%

Draw or Roces

47%

Winning margin

Mosconia wins by 2+

28%

Roces wins by 2+

Team goals

Mosconia 1+ goals

79%

Mosconia 2+ goals

46%

Mosconia 3+ goals

20%

Roces 1+ goals

59%

Roces 2+ goals

22%

Roces 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mosconia (draw refunded)

71%

Roces (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mosconia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Roces away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mosconia attack 1.17 + Roces defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Roces attack 0.69 + Mosconia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mosconia scores more

53%

level

26%

Roces scores more

21%

Mosconia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff