Mosconia 1–0 Lenense: Result & Stats

Mosconia

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lenense

Dani González 88'

2/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mosconia49%

×Draw27%

Lenense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MosconiaExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.92

Mosconia

1.44

Lenense

0.92

Mosconia creates 57% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 96 away

1.17

creates per match

0.76

1.07

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Mosconia

1.17

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Mosconia

1.07

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mosconia+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosconia ↓

Lenense →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mosconia or draw

76%

Mosconia or Lenense

73%

Draw or Lenense

51%

Winning margin

Mosconia wins by 2+

24%

Lenense wins by 2+

Team goals

Mosconia 1+ goals

76%

Mosconia 2+ goals

42%

Mosconia 3+ goals

18%

Lenense 1+ goals

60%

Lenense 2+ goals

23%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mosconia (draw refunded)

67%

Lenense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mosconia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mosconia attack 1.17 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lenense attack 0.76 + Mosconia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mosconia scores more

49%

level

27%

Lenense scores more

24%

Mosconia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Oladipupo← Alexis Lescano

46'

Carlos Cid← J. Pereke

68'

Alejandro Abril← Juan Laine

74'

Cristian Muñiz← Luis Piedralba

75'

Tomas Caccia← Antonio García

86'

Dani Pérez← Pablo Coutado

86'

Pelayo Paino← Pablo Sánchez

88'

Dani González

90+1'

Alejandro Gonzalez← Berto González

90+1'

David Pastur← Dani González

Mosconia

Lenense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Josmay

46'▲M. Oladipupo←▼Alexis Lescano

46'▲Carlos Cid←▼J. Pereke

74'▲Cristian Muñiz←▼Luis Piedralba

90+1'▲Alejandro Gonzalez←▼Berto González

90+1'▲David Pastur←▼Dani González

Mosconia substitutes

OladipupoCidMuñizGonzalezPastur

Manager: Manolo Simón

68'▲Alejandro Abril←▼Juan Laine

75'▲Tomas Caccia←▼Antonio García

86'▲Dani Pérez←▼Pablo Coutado

86'▲Pelayo Paino←▼Pablo Sánchez

Lenense substitutes

AbrilCacciaPérezPaino

Match Recap: Mosconia vs Lenense

Mosconia beat Lenense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 9, 2025.

Goals: Dani González (88').

The match was played at Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo in Grado, Asturias.

Mosconia vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mosconia vs Lenense