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Mosconia vs Condal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mosconia
Mosconia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Condal
Condal
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Mosconia51%
×Draw27%
Condal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosconia
1.47
Condal
0.86

Mosconia creates 71% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 77 away

creates per match

Mosconia
1.17
Condal
0.66

allows per match

Mosconia
1.07
Condal
1.77

finishing

Mosconia+0.00on par
Condal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosconia ↓

Condal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mosconia or draw
78%
Mosconia or Condal
73%
Draw or Condal
49%

Winning margin

Mosconia wins by 2+
26%
Condal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mosconia 1+ goals
77%
Mosconia 2+ goals
43%
Mosconia 3+ goals
18%
Condal 1+ goals
58%
Condal 2+ goals
21%
Condal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mosconia (draw refunded)
70%
Condal (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosconia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Condal away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosconia attack 1.17 + Condal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.47

Condal attack 0.66 + Mosconia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mosconia scores more
51%
level
27%
Condal scores more
22%

Mosconia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Mosconia 2–1 Condal

Mosconia beat Condal 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo in Grado, Asturias.