Mosconia 0–4 Colunga: Result & Stats

Mosconia

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Colunga

Berto González 82'

Manolo 72'

Daniel Corgo 65' (pen)

M. Gueye 48'

4/17/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mosconia41%

×Draw28%

Colunga31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MosconiaExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Mosconia

1.25

Colunga

1.06

Mosconia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 113 away

1.17

creates per match

1.04

1.07

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Mosconia

1.17

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Mosconia

1.07

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mosconia+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosconia ↓

Colunga →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mosconia or draw

69%

Mosconia or Colunga

72%

Draw or Colunga

59%

Winning margin

Mosconia wins by 2+

18%

Colunga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mosconia 1+ goals

71%

Mosconia 2+ goals

36%

Mosconia 3+ goals

13%

Colunga 1+ goals

65%

Colunga 2+ goals

29%

Colunga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mosconia (draw refunded)

56%

Colunga (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mosconia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mosconia attack 1.17 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Colunga attack 1.04 + Mosconia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mosconia scores more

41%

level

28%

Colunga scores more

31%

Mosconia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

M. Gueye

60'

Adrián Rodríguez← Daniel Corgo

65'

Daniel CorgoPenalty

71'

Adrián Menéndez← Josín

71'

Raúl Carballo← Miguel Estébanez

72'

Manolo

75'

Adrian Ibias← Bertin

75'

Alejandro Gonzalez← Adrián Rodríguez

80'

José Antonio← Davis Alejandro

80'

S. Tall← Sergio Ordóñez

82'

Berto González

Mosconia

Colunga

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Pole

75'▲Adrian Ibias←▼Bertin

75'▲Alejandro Gonzalez←▼Adrián Rodríguez

Mosconia substitutes

IbiasGonzalez

Manager: Julio Arniella

60'▲Adrián Rodríguez←▼Daniel Corgo

71'▲Adrián Menéndez←▼Josín

71'▲Raúl Carballo←▼Miguel Estébanez

80'▲José Antonio←▼Davis Alejandro

80'▲S. Tall←▼Sergio Ordóñez

Colunga substitutes

RodríguezMenéndezCarballoAntonioTall