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Mosconia vs Ceares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mosconia
Mosconia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ceares
Ceares
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mosconia37%
×Draw28%
Ceares35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosconia
1.18
Ceares
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 93 away

creates per match

Mosconia
1.17
Ceares
1.20

allows per match

Mosconia
1.07
Ceares
1.19

finishing

Mosconia+0.00on par
Ceares+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosconia ↓

Ceares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mosconia or draw
65%
Mosconia or Ceares
72%
Draw or Ceares
63%

Winning margin

Mosconia wins by 2+
16%
Ceares wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mosconia 1+ goals
69%
Mosconia 2+ goals
33%
Mosconia 3+ goals
12%
Ceares 1+ goals
68%
Ceares 2+ goals
32%
Ceares 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mosconia (draw refunded)
51%
Ceares (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosconia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Ceares away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosconia attack 1.17 + Ceares defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ceares attack 1.20 + Mosconia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mosconia scores more
37%
level
28%
Ceares scores more
35%

Mosconia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mosconia vs Ceares

Mosconia beat Ceares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo in Grado, Asturias.