Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Morvant Caledonia United vs La Horquetta Rangers — League #591 2026

Morvant Caledonia United
Morvant Caledonia United
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
La Horquetta Rangers
La Horquetta Rangers
Unknown 33', 6'
Unknown 90+4', 17', 12'
3/14/2025League #591League #591 · Round 12La Horquetta Recreation Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Morvant Caledonia United40%
×Draw23%
La Horquetta Rangers37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morvant Caledonia United
1.68
La Horquetta Rangers
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 10 away

creates per match

Morvant Caledonia United
1.55
La Horquetta Rangers
1.30

allows per match

Morvant Caledonia United
1.93
La Horquetta Rangers
1.80

finishing

Morvant Caledonia United+0.00on par
La Horquetta Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morvant Caledonia United ↓

La Horquetta Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Morvant Caledonia United or draw
63%
Morvant Caledonia United or La Horquetta Rangers
77%
Draw or La Horquetta Rangers
60%

Winning margin

Morvant Caledonia United wins by 2+
20%
La Horquetta Rangers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Morvant Caledonia United 1+ goals
81%
Morvant Caledonia United 2+ goals
50%
Morvant Caledonia United 3+ goals
24%
La Horquetta Rangers 1+ goals
80%
La Horquetta Rangers 2+ goals
48%
La Horquetta Rangers 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Morvant Caledonia United (draw refunded)
52%
La Horquetta Rangers (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morvant Caledonia United at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

La Horquetta Rangers away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morvant Caledonia United attack 1.55 + La Horquetta Rangers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

La Horquetta Rangers attack 1.30 + Morvant Caledonia United defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Morvant Caledonia United scores more
40%
level
23%
La Horquetta Rangers scores more
37%

Morvant Caledonia United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Morvant Caledonia United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
12'
17'
33'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #591: Morvant Caledonia United 2–3 La Horquetta Rangers

La Horquetta Rangers beat Morvant Caledonia United 3-2 in League #591 on March 14, 2025.

Goals: ? (6', 12', 17', 33', 90+4').

The match was played at La Horquetta Recreation Grounds in Arima.