Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Morvant Caledonia United vs Central — League #591 2026

Morvant Caledonia United
Morvant Caledonia United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Central
Central
K. Corbin 90+3'
K. Woodley 45+2'
12/21/2024League #591League #591 · Round 3Arima Velodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Morvant Caledonia United23%
×Draw19%
Central58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morvant Caledonia United
1.52
Central
2.46

Central creates 62% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

creates per match

Morvant Caledonia United
1.55
Central
3.00

allows per match

Morvant Caledonia United
1.93
Central
1.50

finishing

Morvant Caledonia United+0.00on par
Central+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morvant Caledonia United ↓

Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Morvant Caledonia United or draw
42%
Morvant Caledonia United or Central
81%
Draw or Central
77%

Winning margin

Morvant Caledonia United wins by 2+
10%
Central wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Morvant Caledonia United 1+ goals
78%
Morvant Caledonia United 2+ goals
45%
Morvant Caledonia United 3+ goals
20%
Central 1+ goals
91%
Central 2+ goals
70%
Central 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Morvant Caledonia United (draw refunded)
29%
Central (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morvant Caledonia United at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

Central away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morvant Caledonia United attack 1.55 + Central defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Central attack 3.00 + Morvant Caledonia United defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Morvant Caledonia United scores more
23%
level
19%
Central scores more
58%

Central at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
K. Woodley
90+3'
K. Corbin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morvant Caledonia United vs Central

Central beat Morvant Caledonia United 2-0 in League #591 on December 21, 2024.

Goals: K. Woodley (45+2'), K. Corbin (90+3').

The match was played at Arima Velodrome in Arima.