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Morton vs East Kilbride — League Cup 2018

Morton
Morton
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
7/13/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Cappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Morton67%
×Draw18%
East Kilbride15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morton
2.51
East Kilbride
1.13

Morton creates 122% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Morton
2.31
East Kilbride
1.57

allows per match

Morton
0.69
East Kilbride
2.71

finishing

Morton+0.00on par
East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

East Kilbride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Morton or draw
85%
Morton or East Kilbride
82%
Draw or East Kilbride
33%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+
45%
East Kilbride wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals
92%
Morton 2+ goals
71%
Morton 3+ goals
45%
East Kilbride 1+ goals
68%
East Kilbride 2+ goals
31%
East Kilbride 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)
81%
East Kilbride (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 2.31 + East Kilbride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.51

East Kilbride attack 1.57 + Morton defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Morton scores more
67%
level
18%
East Kilbride scores more
15%

Morton at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Morton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morton vs East Kilbride

Morton and East Kilbride drew 0-0 in League Cup on July 13, 2021.

The match was played at Cappielow Park in Greenock.