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Morton vs Dumbarton — League Cup 2018

Morton
Morton
FT
6 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
7/16/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3Cappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Morton77%
×Draw15%
Dumbarton8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morton
2.52
Dumbarton
0.68

Morton creates 271% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Morton
2.31
Dumbarton
0.67

allows per match

Morton
0.69
Dumbarton
2.73

finishing

Morton+0.00on par
Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

Dumbarton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Morton or draw
92%
Morton or Dumbarton
85%
Draw or Dumbarton
23%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+
55%
Dumbarton wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals
92%
Morton 2+ goals
71%
Morton 3+ goals
45%
Dumbarton 1+ goals
49%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
15%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)
91%
Dumbarton (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 2.31 + Dumbarton defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.52

Dumbarton attack 0.67 + Morton defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Morton scores more
77%
level
15%
Dumbarton scores more
8%

Morton at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Morton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morton vs Dumbarton

Morton beat Dumbarton 6-1 in League Cup on July 16, 2019.

The match was played at Cappielow Park in Greenock.