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Morton vs Alloa Athletic — League Cup 2018

Morton
Morton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
7/27/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7Cappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Morton56%
×Draw22%
Alloa Athletic23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morton
2.02
Alloa Athletic
1.21

Morton creates 67% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Morton
2.31
Alloa Athletic
1.73

allows per match

Morton
0.69
Alloa Athletic
1.73

finishing

Morton+0.00on par
Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

Alloa Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Morton or draw
77%
Morton or Alloa Athletic
78%
Draw or Alloa Athletic
44%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+
33%
Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals
87%
Morton 2+ goals
60%
Morton 3+ goals
33%
Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
70%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
34%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)
71%
Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 2.31 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.02

Alloa Athletic attack 1.73 + Morton defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Morton scores more
56%
level
22%
Alloa Athletic scores more
23%

Morton at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Morton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Morton 2–1 Alloa Athletic

Morton beat Alloa Athletic 2-1 in League Cup on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Cappielow Park in Greenock.