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Mortágua vs Vitória de Sernache — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Mortágua
Mortágua
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
1/10/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 11Campo da Gandarada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mortágua35%
×Draw27%
Vitória de Sernache39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mortágua
1.25
Vitória de Sernache
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mortágua
0.60
Vitória de Sernache
1.55

allows per match

Mortágua
1.10
Vitória de Sernache
1.91

finishing

Mortágua+0.00on par
Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mortágua ↓

Vitória de Sernache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mortágua or draw
61%
Mortágua or Vitória de Sernache
73%
Draw or Vitória de Sernache
65%

Winning margin

Mortágua wins by 2+
15%
Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mortágua 1+ goals
71%
Mortágua 2+ goals
36%
Mortágua 3+ goals
13%
Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
74%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
38%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mortágua (draw refunded)
47%
Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mortágua at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mortágua attack 0.60 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.55 + Mortágua defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mortágua scores more
35%
level
27%
Vitória de Sernache scores more
39%

Vitória de Sernache at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vitória de Sernache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Mortágua 3–3 Vitória de Sernache

Mortágua and Vitória de Sernache drew 3-3 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Campo da Gandarada in Mortágua.