Mortágua 0–0 Penafiel: Result & Stats

Mortágua

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Penafiel

G. Duda 116'

D. Pinto 86'

Unknown 113', 92', 90'

9/29/2019

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo da Gandarada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mortágua44%

×Draw23%

Penafiel34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MortáguaExpected goals in this matchPenafiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.58

Mortágua

1.83

Penafiel

1.58

Mortágua creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

2.17

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Mortágua

2.67

Penafiel

2.17

allows per match

Mortágua

1.00

Penafiel

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mortágua+0.00on par

Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mortágua ↓

Penafiel →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Mortágua or draw

66%

Mortágua or Penafiel

77%

Draw or Penafiel

56%

Winning margin

Mortágua wins by 2+

24%

Penafiel wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mortágua 1+ goals

84%

Mortágua 2+ goals

54%

Mortágua 3+ goals

28%

Penafiel 1+ goals

79%

Penafiel 2+ goals

47%

Penafiel 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mortágua (draw refunded)

57%

Penafiel (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mortágua at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Penafiel away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mortágua attack 2.67 + Penafiel defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Penafiel attack 2.17 + Mortágua defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mortágua scores more

44%

level

23%

Penafiel scores more

34%

Mortágua at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mortágua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

86'

D. Pinto

90'

92'

113'

116'

G. Duda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff