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Mortágua vs Oliveira Hospital — League #459 2026

Mortágua
Mortágua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes 60'
Seidy 11'
9/28/2025League #459League #459 · Group C - 5Campo Gandarada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mortágua49%
×Draw34%
Oliveira Hospital17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mortágua
1.06
Oliveira Hospital
0.50

Mortágua creates 112% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mortágua
1.00
Oliveira Hospital
1.00

allows per match

Mortágua
0.00
Oliveira Hospital
1.13

finishing

Mortágua+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mortágua ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–111%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mortágua or draw
83%
Mortágua or Oliveira Hospital
66%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
51%

Winning margin

Mortágua wins by 2+
20%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mortágua 1+ goals
65%
Mortágua 2+ goals
29%
Mortágua 3+ goals
9%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
39%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
9%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mortágua (draw refunded)
74%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mortágua at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mortágua attack 1.00 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.00 + Mortágua defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mortágua scores more
49%
level
34%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
17%

Mortágua at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mortágua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Seidy
60'
I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
Mortágua
Oliveira
Eduardo Martins
Manager: Eduardo Martins
Nuno Pedro
Manager: Nuno Pedro

League #459: Mortágua 2–0 Oliveira Hospital

Mortágua beat Oliveira Hospital 2-0 in League #459 on September 28, 2025.

Goals: Seidy (11'), I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes (60').

The match was played at Campo Gandarada in Mortágua.