Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mortágua vs Oleiros — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Mortágua
Mortágua
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oleiros
Oleiros
11/29/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 7Campo da Gandarada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mortágua35%
×Draw30%
Oleiros35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mortágua
1.05
Oleiros
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mortágua
0.60
Oleiros
1.00

allows per match

Mortágua
1.10
Oleiros
1.50

finishing

Mortágua+0.00on par
Oleiros+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mortágua ↓

Oleiros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mortágua or draw
65%
Mortágua or Oleiros
70%
Draw or Oleiros
65%

Winning margin

Mortágua wins by 2+
14%
Oleiros wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mortágua 1+ goals
65%
Mortágua 2+ goals
28%
Mortágua 3+ goals
9%
Oleiros 1+ goals
65%
Oleiros 2+ goals
28%
Oleiros 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mortágua (draw refunded)
50%
Oleiros (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mortágua at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Oleiros away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mortágua attack 0.60 + Oleiros defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Oleiros attack 1.00 + Mortágua defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mortágua scores more
35%
level
30%
Oleiros scores more
35%

Mortágua at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mortágua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Mortágua 1–1 Oleiros

Mortágua and Oleiros drew 1-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Campo da Gandarada in Mortágua.