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Mortágua vs Condeixa — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Mortágua
Mortágua
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Condeixa
Condeixa
10/4/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 2Campo da Gandarada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mortágua21%
×Draw33%
Condeixa45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mortágua
0.62
Condeixa
1.05

Condeixa creates 69% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mortágua
0.60
Condeixa
1.00

allows per match

Mortágua
1.10
Condeixa
0.64

finishing

Mortágua+0.00on par
Condeixa+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mortágua ↓

Condeixa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–120%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mortágua or draw
55%
Mortágua or Condeixa
67%
Draw or Condeixa
79%

Winning margin

Mortágua wins by 2+
5%
Condeixa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mortágua 1+ goals
46%
Mortágua 2+ goals
13%
Mortágua 3+ goals
3%
Condeixa 1+ goals
65%
Condeixa 2+ goals
28%
Condeixa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mortágua (draw refunded)
32%
Condeixa (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mortágua at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Condeixa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mortágua attack 0.60 + Condeixa defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.62

Condeixa attack 1.00 + Mortágua defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mortágua scores more
21%
level
33%
Condeixa scores more
45%

Condeixa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Condeixa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Mortágua 0–0 Condeixa

Mortágua and Condeixa drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Campo da Gandarada in Mortágua.