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Morris Elite vs FC Motown — USL League Two 2018

Morris Elite
Morris Elite
FT
1 – 0
FC Motown
FC Motown
6/30/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 41Gordy LeMatty Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Morris Elite23%
×Draw25%
FC Motown52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morris Elite
1.02
FC Motown
1.65

FC Motown creates 62% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 7 away

creates per match

Morris Elite
0.90
FC Motown
1.29

allows per match

Morris Elite
2.00
FC Motown
1.14

finishing

Morris Elite+0.00on par
FC Motown+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morris Elite ↓

FC Motown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Morris Elite or draw
48%
Morris Elite or FC Motown
75%
Draw or FC Motown
77%

Winning margin

Morris Elite wins by 2+
8%
FC Motown wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Morris Elite 1+ goals
64%
Morris Elite 2+ goals
27%
Morris Elite 3+ goals
8%
FC Motown 1+ goals
81%
FC Motown 2+ goals
49%
FC Motown 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Morris Elite (draw refunded)
31%
FC Motown (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morris Elite at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

FC Motown away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morris Elite attack 0.90 + FC Motown defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

FC Motown attack 1.29 + Morris Elite defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Morris Elite scores more
23%
level
25%
FC Motown scores more
52%

FC Motown at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Motown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Morris Elite 1–0 FC Motown

Morris Elite beat FC Motown 1-0 in USL League Two on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Gordy LeMatty Field in Union, New Jersey.