Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Morris Elite vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

Morris Elite
Morris Elite
FT
1 – 1
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
5/20/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Eastern Conference - 3Frederick Douglass Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Morris Elite38%
×Draw24%
FA Euro New York38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morris Elite
1.57
FA Euro New York
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 25 away

creates per match

Morris Elite
0.90
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

Morris Elite
2.00
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

Morris Elite+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morris Elite ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Morris Elite or draw
62%
Morris Elite or FA Euro New York
76%
Draw or FA Euro New York
62%

Winning margin

Morris Elite wins by 2+
19%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Morris Elite 1+ goals
79%
Morris Elite 2+ goals
46%
Morris Elite 3+ goals
21%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
79%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
47%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Morris Elite (draw refunded)
50%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morris Elite at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morris Elite attack 0.90 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + Morris Elite defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Morris Elite scores more
38%
level
24%
FA Euro New York scores more
38%

Morris Elite at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Morris Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Morris Elite 1 – 1 FA Euro New York

Morris Elite and FA Euro New York drew 1-1 in USL League Two on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Frederick Douglass Field in Newark, New Jersey.