Morön W 1–2 Team TG FF W: Result & Stats

Morön W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Team TG FF W

C. Gray 52'

A. Sandström 90+5'

S. Shepherd 89' (OG)

9/17/2022

Elitettan · Round 20Kilsta IP A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Morön W38%

×Draw22%

Team TG FF W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morön WExpected goals in this matchTeam TG FF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.89

Morön W

1.82

Team TG FF W

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.50

creates per match

0.81

2.96

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Morön W

1.50

Team TG FF W

0.81

allows per match

Morön W

2.96

Team TG FF W

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morön W+0.00on par

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morön W ↓

Team TG FF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Morön W or draw

59%

Morön W or Team TG FF W

78%

Draw or Team TG FF W

62%

Winning margin

Morön W wins by 2+

20%

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Morön W 1+ goals

84%

Morön W 2+ goals

54%

Morön W 3+ goals

27%

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

85%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

56%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Morön W (draw refunded)

48%

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morön W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.96 · 26 matches

Team TG FF W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morön W attack 1.50 + Team TG FF W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.82

Team TG FF W attack 0.81 + Morön W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Morön W scores more

38%

level

22%

Team TG FF W scores more

41%

Team TG FF W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Team TG FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

E. Berggren

46'

C. Gray← E. Berggren

51'

J. Bjornler

52'

C. Gray

58'

E. Ellman← A. Brännström

58'

P. Zarassi← L. Engström

58'

T. Wikström← E. Fors

77'

F. Jonsson Aspelin← S. Ringh

79'

E. Cabander

87'

I. Adamsson← I. Lilja

87'

A. Svedberg← E. Dahlin

89'

T. Sörensson← K. Weinacht

89'

S. ShepherdOwn goal

90+5'

A. Sandström

Morön

Team

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Blennmark

46'▲C. Gray←▼E. Berggren

77'▲F. Jonsson Aspelin←▼S. Ringh

87'▲I. Adamsson←▼I. Lilja

89'▲T. Sörensson←▼K. Weinacht

Morön W substitutes

GrayAspelinAdamssonSörenssonRingmanLundbladLinder

Manager: J. Wikström

58'▲E. Ellman←▼A. Brännström

58'▲P. Zarassi←▼L. Engström

58'▲T. Wikström←▼E. Fors

87'▲A. Svedberg←▼E. Dahlin

Team TG FF W substitutes

EllmanZarassiWikströmSvedbergWiklund

Match Recap: Morön W vs Team TG FF W

Team TG FF W beat Morön W 2-1 in Elitettan on September 17, 2022.

Goals: C. Gray (52'), S. Shepherd (89' o.g.), A. Sandström (90+5').

The match was played at Kilsta IP A-plan in Karlskoga.

Morön W vs Team TG FF W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Morön W vs Team TG FF W