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Morön W vs Gamla Upsala W — Elitettan 2021

Morön W
Morön W
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 4
Gamla Upsala W
Gamla Upsala W
8/28/2022ElitettanElitettan · Round 18Kilsta IP A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Morön W32%
×Draw21%
Gamla Upsala W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morön W
1.78
Gamla Upsala W
2.19

Gamla Upsala W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 57 away

creates per match

Morön W
1.50
Gamla Upsala W
1.42

allows per match

Morön W
2.96
Gamla Upsala W
2.07

finishing

Morön W+0.00on par
Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morön W ↓

Gamla Upsala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Morön W or draw
53%
Morön W or Gamla Upsala W
79%
Draw or Gamla Upsala W
68%

Winning margin

Morön W wins by 2+
16%
Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Morön W 1+ goals
83%
Morön W 2+ goals
53%
Morön W 3+ goals
26%
Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals
89%
Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals
64%
Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Morön W (draw refunded)
40%
Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morön W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.96 · 26 matches

Gamla Upsala W away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morön W attack 1.50 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.78

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.42 + Morön W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Morön W scores more
32%
level
21%
Gamla Upsala W scores more
47%

Gamla Upsala W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gamla Upsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Morön W 3–4 Gamla Upsala W

Gamla Upsala W beat Morön W 4-3 in Elitettan on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Kilsta IP A-plan in Karlskoga.