Moroka Swallows 1–0 TS Galaxy: Result & Stats

Moroka Swallows

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

TS Galaxy

11/8/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 8Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Moroka Swallows38%

×Draw31%

TS Galaxy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moroka SwallowsExpected goals in this matchTS Galaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.91

Moroka Swallows

1.05

TS Galaxy

0.91

Moroka Swallows creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 90 away

0.98

creates per match

0.76

1.05

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Moroka Swallows

0.98

TS Galaxy

0.76

allows per match

Moroka Swallows

1.05

TS Galaxy

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moroka Swallows ↓

TS Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Moroka Swallows or draw

69%

Moroka Swallows or TS Galaxy

69%

Draw or TS Galaxy

62%

Winning margin

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+

15%

TS Galaxy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals

65%

Moroka Swallows 2+ goals

28%

Moroka Swallows 3+ goals

9%

TS Galaxy 1+ goals

60%

TS Galaxy 2+ goals

23%

TS Galaxy 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)

55%

TS Galaxy (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moroka Swallows at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

TS Galaxy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moroka Swallows attack 0.98 + TS Galaxy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

TS Galaxy attack 0.76 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moroka Swallows scores more

38%

level

31%

TS Galaxy scores more

31%

Moroka Swallows at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moroka Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff