Moroka Swallows 0–1 Polokwane City: Result & Stats

Moroka Swallows

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Polokwane City

2/17/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 13Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Moroka Swallows38%

×Draw32%

Polokwane City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moroka SwallowsExpected goals in this matchPolokwane City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.86

Moroka Swallows

1.02

Polokwane City

0.86

Moroka Swallows creates 19% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 75 away

0.98

creates per match

0.68

1.05

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Moroka Swallows

0.98

Polokwane City

0.68

allows per match

Moroka Swallows

1.05

Polokwane City

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Polokwane City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moroka Swallows ↓

Polokwane City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Moroka Swallows or draw

70%

Moroka Swallows or Polokwane City

68%

Draw or Polokwane City

62%

Winning margin

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+

15%

Polokwane City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals

64%

Moroka Swallows 2+ goals

27%

Moroka Swallows 3+ goals

8%

Polokwane City 1+ goals

58%

Polokwane City 2+ goals

21%

Polokwane City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)

56%

Polokwane City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moroka Swallows at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

Polokwane City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.05 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moroka Swallows attack 0.98 + Polokwane City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Polokwane City attack 0.68 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moroka Swallows scores more

38%

level

32%

Polokwane City scores more

30%

Moroka Swallows at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moroka Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff