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Moroka Swallows vs Bloem Celtic — Premier Soccer League 2018

Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
10/28/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 2Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Moroka Swallows40%
×Draw28%
Bloem Celtic31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moroka Swallows
1.23
Bloem Celtic
1.04

Moroka Swallows creates 18% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 45 away

creates per match

Moroka Swallows
0.98
Bloem Celtic
1.02

allows per match

Moroka Swallows
1.05
Bloem Celtic
1.47

finishing

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par
Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moroka Swallows ↓

Bloem Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moroka Swallows or draw
69%
Moroka Swallows or Bloem Celtic
72%
Draw or Bloem Celtic
60%

Winning margin

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
18%
Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
71%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
35%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
13%
Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
65%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
28%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
57%
Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moroka Swallows at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moroka Swallows attack 0.98 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Moroka Swallows scores more
40%
level
28%
Bloem Celtic scores more
31%

Moroka Swallows at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Moroka Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moroka Swallows vs Bloem Celtic

Moroka Swallows beat Bloem Celtic 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.