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Moroka Swallows vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
4/11/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Moroka Swallows47%
×Draw27%
Black Leopards26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moroka Swallows
1.40
Black Leopards
0.96

Moroka Swallows creates 46% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

creates per match

Moroka Swallows
0.98
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Moroka Swallows
1.05
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moroka Swallows ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Moroka Swallows or draw
74%
Moroka Swallows or Black Leopards
73%
Draw or Black Leopards
53%

Winning margin

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
23%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
75%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
41%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
17%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
62%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
25%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
65%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moroka Swallows at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moroka Swallows attack 0.98 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.40

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moroka Swallows scores more
47%
level
27%
Black Leopards scores more
26%

Moroka Swallows at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moroka Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Moroka Swallows 1–0 Black Leopards

Moroka Swallows beat Black Leopards 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.