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Moroka Swallows vs Baroka FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Baroka FC
Baroka FC
4/24/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Moroka Swallows41%
×Draw30%
Baroka FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moroka Swallows
1.16
Baroka FC
0.91

Moroka Swallows creates 27% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Moroka Swallows
0.98
Baroka FC
0.76

allows per match

Moroka Swallows
1.05
Baroka FC
1.34

finishing

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par
Baroka FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moroka Swallows ↓

Baroka FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moroka Swallows or draw
71%
Moroka Swallows or Baroka FC
70%
Draw or Baroka FC
59%

Winning margin

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
18%
Baroka FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
69%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
32%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
11%
Baroka FC 1+ goals
60%
Baroka FC 2+ goals
23%
Baroka FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
59%
Baroka FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moroka Swallows at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

Baroka FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moroka Swallows attack 0.98 + Baroka FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Baroka FC attack 0.76 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moroka Swallows scores more
41%
level
30%
Baroka FC scores more
29%

Moroka Swallows at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moroka Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moroka Swallows vs Baroka FC

Moroka Swallows beat Baroka FC 3-2 in Premier Soccer League on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.