Morocco W 1–1 Uganda W: Result & Stats

Morocco W

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Uganda W

12/1/2023

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stade Père-Jégo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Morocco W51%

×Draw22%

Uganda W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morocco WExpected goals in this matchUganda W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.32

Morocco W

1.92

Uganda W

1.32

Morocco W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 7 away

2.54

creates per match

1.71

0.93

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Morocco W

2.54

Uganda W

1.71

allows per match

Morocco W

0.93

Uganda W

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco W+0.00on par

Uganda W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco W ↓

Uganda W →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Morocco W or draw

74%

Morocco W or Uganda W

78%

Draw or Uganda W

49%

Winning margin

Morocco W wins by 2+

29%

Uganda W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Morocco W 1+ goals

85%

Morocco W 2+ goals

57%

Morocco W 3+ goals

30%

Uganda W 1+ goals

73%

Uganda W 2+ goals

38%

Uganda W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Morocco W (draw refunded)

66%

Uganda W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Morocco W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Uganda W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Morocco W attack 2.54 + Uganda W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.92

Uganda W attack 1.71 + Morocco W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Morocco W scores more

51%

level

22%

Uganda W scores more

26%

Morocco W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Morocco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff