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Morocco W vs Tanzania W — Friendlies Women 2026

Morocco W
Morocco W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tanzania W
Tanzania W
K. Chapelle 79'
G. Chebbak 73'
C. Bahera 56' (OG)
I. Jraidi 27'
L. Enekia 42'
10/25/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stade Père-Jégo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Morocco W68%
×Draw18%
Tanzania W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morocco W
2.38
Tanzania W
0.97

Morocco W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 9 away

creates per match

Morocco W
2.54
Tanzania W
1.00

allows per match

Morocco W
0.93
Tanzania W
2.22

finishing

Morocco W+0.00on par
Tanzania W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco W ↓

Tanzania W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Morocco W or draw
86%
Morocco W or Tanzania W
82%
Draw or Tanzania W
32%

Winning margin

Morocco W wins by 2+
46%
Tanzania W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Morocco W 1+ goals
91%
Morocco W 2+ goals
68%
Morocco W 3+ goals
42%
Tanzania W 1+ goals
62%
Tanzania W 2+ goals
25%
Tanzania W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Morocco W (draw refunded)
83%
Tanzania W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Tanzania W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco W attack 2.54 + Tanzania W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.38

Tanzania W attack 1.00 + Morocco W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Morocco W scores more
68%
level
18%
Tanzania W scores more
14%

Morocco W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Morocco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
C. Bahera
27'
I. Jraidi
37'
C. Luvanga← C. Luvanga
40'
J. Aminiel
42'
L. Enekia
46'
S. Ouzraoui Diki← F. Tagnaout
46'
S. Kassi← N. Badri
56'
C. BaheraOwn goal
72'
N. Badri← Z. Redouani
73'
G. Chebbak
78'
I. Jraidi← K. Chapelle
79'
K. Chapelle
85'
L. Maximillian← L. Maximillian
86'
S. Seghir← J. Nassi
86'
I. Saoud← R. Bouteibi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morocco W vs Tanzania W

Morocco W beat Tanzania W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on October 25, 2024.

Goals: I. Jraidi (27'), L. Enekia (42'), C. Bahera (56' o.g.), G. Chebbak (73'), K. Chapelle (79').

The match was played at Stade Père-Jégo in Casablanca.