Morocco W 0–2 South Africa W: Result & Stats

Morocco W

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

South Africa W

S. Cesane 86'

N. Mthandi 70'

12/2/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Morocco W69%

×Draw18%

South Africa W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morocco WExpected goals in this matchSouth Africa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.97

Morocco W

2.42

South Africa W

0.97

Morocco W creates 149% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 17 away

2.54

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Morocco W

2.54

South Africa W

1.00

allows per match

Morocco W

0.93

South Africa W

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco W+0.00on par

South Africa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco W ↓

South Africa W →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Morocco W or draw

87%

Morocco W or South Africa W

82%

Draw or South Africa W

31%

Winning margin

Morocco W wins by 2+

46%

South Africa W wins by 2+

Team goals

Morocco W 1+ goals

91%

Morocco W 2+ goals

69%

Morocco W 3+ goals

43%

South Africa W 1+ goals

62%

South Africa W 2+ goals

25%

South Africa W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Morocco W (draw refunded)

84%

South Africa W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Morocco W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

South Africa W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Morocco W attack 2.54 + South Africa W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.42

South Africa W attack 1.00 + Morocco W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Morocco W scores more

69%

level

18%

South Africa W scores more

13%

Morocco W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Morocco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Wade← R. Jane

53'

70'

N. Mthandi

72'

B. Mokoma← N. Mthandi

72'

B. Thusi← N. Majiya

83'

I. A. Ludwig← A. Motau

86'

S. Cesane

Morocco

South

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Jorge Vilda Rodríguez

Morocco W substitutes

Arari23Hasnaoui13Seghir9Jraidi11TagnaoutTouriss5Ghazouani4Atiq8ErroudanyKassi21Said16Lahmari24Ghazouani12NassiChapelle

Manager: Desiree Ellis

30'▲J. Wade←▼R. Jane

72'▲B. Mokoma←▼N. Mthandi

72'▲B. Thusi←▼N. Majiya

83'▲I. A. Ludwig←▼A. Motau

South Africa W substitutes

GordonMokomaThusiLudwigHadebeMaponya4Mogolola8Wade2Simayile21Magagula

Friendlies Women: Morocco W 0–2 South Africa W

South Africa W beat Morocco W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on December 2, 2025.

Goals: N. Mthandi (70'), S. Cesane (86').

Morocco W vs South Africa W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Morocco W 0–2 South Africa W