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Morocco W vs Cape Verde W — Friendlies Women 2026

Morocco W
Morocco W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Cape Verde W
Cape Verde W
S. Mssoudy 45'
I. Jraidi 42'
N. Benzina 22'
3/7/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Morocco W76%
×Draw17%
Cape Verde W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morocco W
2.15
Cape Verde W
0.47

Morocco W creates 357% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 4 away

creates per match

Morocco W
2.54
Cape Verde W
0.00

allows per match

Morocco W
0.93
Cape Verde W
1.75

finishing

Morocco W+0.00on par
Cape Verde W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco W ↓

Cape Verde W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Morocco W or draw
93%
Morocco W or Cape Verde W
83%
Draw or Cape Verde W
24%

Winning margin

Morocco W wins by 2+
51%
Cape Verde W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Morocco W 1+ goals
88%
Morocco W 2+ goals
63%
Morocco W 3+ goals
36%
Cape Verde W 1+ goals
37%
Cape Verde W 2+ goals
8%
Cape Verde W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Morocco W (draw refunded)
92%
Cape Verde W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Cape Verde W away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco W attack 2.54 + Cape Verde W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.15

Cape Verde W attack 0.00 + Morocco W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Morocco W scores more
76%
level
17%
Cape Verde W scores more
7%

Morocco W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Morocco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
N. Benzina
42'
I. Jraidi
45'
S. Mssoudy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Morocco W 3–0 Cape Verde W

Morocco W beat Cape Verde W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on March 7, 2026.

Goals: N. Benzina (22'), I. Jraidi (42'), S. Mssoudy (45').