Morocco W 1–1 Burkina Faso W: Result & Stats

Morocco W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Burkina Faso W

I. Jraidi 45'

N. A. Kabre 58'

11/28/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Morocco W72%

×Draw17%

Burkina Faso W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morocco WExpected goals in this matchBurkina Faso W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.82

Morocco W

2.42

Burkina Faso W

0.82

Morocco W creates 195% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 7 away

2.54

creates per match

0.71

0.93

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Morocco W

2.54

Burkina Faso W

0.71

allows per match

Morocco W

0.93

Burkina Faso W

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco W+0.00on par

Burkina Faso W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco W ↓

Burkina Faso W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Morocco W or draw

89%

Morocco W or Burkina Faso W

83%

Draw or Burkina Faso W

28%

Winning margin

Morocco W wins by 2+

50%

Burkina Faso W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Morocco W 1+ goals

91%

Morocco W 2+ goals

69%

Morocco W 3+ goals

43%

Burkina Faso W 1+ goals

56%

Burkina Faso W 2+ goals

20%

Burkina Faso W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Morocco W (draw refunded)

87%

Burkina Faso W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Burkina Faso W away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco W attack 2.54 + Burkina Faso W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.42

Burkina Faso W attack 0.71 + Morocco W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Morocco W scores more

72%

level

17%

Burkina Faso W scores more

11%

Morocco W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Morocco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

I. Jraidi

58'

N. A. Kabre

Morocco

Burkina

Manager: Jorge Vilda Rodríguez

Manager: P. Sawadogo