Morocco 2–0 Tunisia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Morocco

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tunisia

Ayoub El Kaabi 90+4'

Achraf Hakimi 80'

6/6/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Grand Stade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Morocco59%

×Draw25%

Tunisia16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoroccoExpected goals in this matchTunisia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.67

Morocco

1.58

Tunisia

0.67

Morocco creates 136% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

1.59

creates per match

0.72

0.62

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Morocco

1.59

Tunisia

0.72

allows per match

Morocco

0.62

Tunisia

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco+0.00on par

Tunisia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco ↓

Tunisia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Morocco or draw

84%

Morocco or Tunisia

75%

Draw or Tunisia

41%

Winning margin

Morocco wins by 2+

32%

Tunisia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Morocco 1+ goals

79%

Morocco 2+ goals

47%

Morocco 3+ goals

21%

Tunisia 1+ goals

49%

Tunisia 2+ goals

15%

Tunisia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Morocco (draw refunded)

79%

Tunisia (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Tunisia away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco attack 1.59 + Tunisia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tunisia attack 0.72 + Morocco defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Morocco scores more

59%

level

25%

Tunisia scores more

16%

Morocco at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Morocco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Eliesse Ben Seghir

Morocco · M

8.9

Match Events

17'

Hannibal Mejbri

40'

Ali Abdi

46'

Hazem Mastouri← Firas Chaouat

58'

Soufiane Rahimi← Youssef En-Nesyri

58'

Ayoub El Kaabi← Bilal El Khannouss

70'

Sayfallah Ltaief← Anis Ben Slimane

78'

Maroan Sannadi← Ismael Saibari

80'

Achraf Hakimi↳ Eliesse Ben Seghir

83'

Oussama Targhalline← Eliesse Ben Seghir

83'

Sebastian Tounekti← Elias Achouri

87'

Firas Ben Al Arbi← Aissa Laïdouni

90+4'

Ayoub El Kaabi↳ Maroan Sannadi

90+6'

Azzedine Ounahi

90+1'

Ali Abdi

90+1'

Ali Abdi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoroccoTunisia

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots4

7Corners5

13Fouls22

Shots

16Total Shots4

3On Target1

9Off Target1

4Blocked2

10Inside Box1

6Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

449Total Passes294

379Accurate Passes233

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls22

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2