Morocco 1–0 Mozambique: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Morocco

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mozambique

Azzedine Ounahi 7'

11/14/2025

Friendlies · FriendliesStade Ibn-Batouta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Morocco60%

×Draw24%

Mozambique16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoroccoExpected goals in this matchMozambique

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.70

Morocco

1.63

Mozambique

0.70

Morocco creates 133% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 9 away

1.59

creates per match

0.78

0.62

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Morocco

1.59

Mozambique

0.78

allows per match

Morocco

0.62

Mozambique

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco+0.00on par

Mozambique+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco ↓

Mozambique →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Morocco or draw

84%

Morocco or Mozambique

76%

Draw or Mozambique

40%

Winning margin

Morocco wins by 2+

33%

Mozambique wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Morocco 1+ goals

80%

Morocco 2+ goals

48%

Morocco 3+ goals

22%

Mozambique 1+ goals

50%

Mozambique 2+ goals

16%

Mozambique 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Morocco (draw refunded)

79%

Mozambique (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Mozambique away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco attack 1.59 + Mozambique defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mozambique attack 0.78 + Morocco defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Morocco scores more

60%

level

24%

Mozambique scores more

16%

Morocco at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Morocco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Azzedine Ounahi

Morocco · M

8.5

Match Events

7'

Azzedine Ounahi↳ Noussair Mazraoui

46'

Manuel Kambala← Dominguês Pelembe

57'

Ayoub El KaabiMissed penalty

62'

Hamza Igamane← Abdessamad Ezzalzouli

62'

Youssef En-Nesyri← Ayoub El Kaabi

63'

Witi← Faisal Abdul Bangal

70'

Feliciano Jone Nenê← Edson Mexer

74'

Ilias Akhomach← Sofyan Amrabat

74'

Ismael Saibari← Brahim Díaz

82'

Bilal El Khannouss← Azzedine Ounahi

82'

Mohamed Chibi← Noussair Mazraoui

88'

Nanani Infren← Diogo Calila

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoroccoMozambique

Overview

66%Possession34%

18Total Shots3

10Corners0

18Fouls3

Shots

18Total Shots3

5On Target0

8Off Target2

5Blocked1

14Inside Box2

4Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

580Total Passes311

527Accurate Passes255

91%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls3

0Offsides1