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Morocco vs Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Morocco
Morocco
FT
3 – 1
Guinea
Guinea
11/19/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah (Rabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Morocco55%
×Draw27%
Guinea18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morocco
1.43
Guinea
0.68

Morocco creates 110% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Morocco
1.59
Guinea
0.73

allows per match

Morocco
0.62
Guinea
1.27

finishing

Morocco+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Morocco or draw
82%
Morocco or Guinea
73%
Draw or Guinea
45%

Winning margin

Morocco wins by 2+
28%
Guinea wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Morocco 1+ goals
76%
Morocco 2+ goals
42%
Morocco 3+ goals
17%
Guinea 1+ goals
49%
Guinea 2+ goals
15%
Guinea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Morocco (draw refunded)
76%
Guinea (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco attack 1.59 + Guinea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Guinea attack 0.73 + Morocco defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Morocco scores more
55%
level
27%
Guinea scores more
18%

Morocco at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Morocco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morocco vs Guinea

Morocco beat Guinea 3-1 in Friendlies on November 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah (Rabat).