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Morocco vs Georgia — Friendlies 2026

Morocco
Morocco
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Georgia
Georgia
S. Boufal 72' (pen)
H. Ziyech 29'
Y. En-Nesyri 5'
11/17/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Morocco54%
×Draw25%
Georgia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morocco
1.57
Georgia
0.85

Morocco creates 85% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 11 away

creates per match

Morocco
1.59
Georgia
1.09

allows per match

Morocco
0.62
Georgia
1.55

finishing

Morocco+0.00on par
Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco ↓

Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Morocco or draw
80%
Morocco or Georgia
75%
Draw or Georgia
46%

Winning margin

Morocco wins by 2+
29%
Georgia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Morocco 1+ goals
79%
Morocco 2+ goals
46%
Morocco 3+ goals
21%
Georgia 1+ goals
57%
Georgia 2+ goals
21%
Georgia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Morocco (draw refunded)
73%
Georgia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco attack 1.59 + Georgia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Georgia attack 1.09 + Morocco defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Morocco scores more
54%
level
25%
Georgia scores more
20%

Morocco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Morocco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Y. En-Nesyri
29'
H. Ziyech
35'
L. Shengelia← G. Tsitaishvili
46'
S. Amrabat← A. Ounahi
46'
N. Mazraoui← A. Hakimi
46'
A. Hamdallah← Y. En-Nesyri
62'
G. Kvilitaia← D. Volkovi
62'
S. Lobzhanidze← Z. Davitashvili
63'
J. El Yamiq← R. Saïss
63'
I. Chair← S. Amallah
69'
A. Zaroury← H. Ziyech
72'
S. BoufalPenalty
78'
S. Sazonov← S. Kvirkvelia
78'
A. Mekvabishvili← O. Kiteishvili
78'
G. Beridze← N. Kvekveskiri

Shots

12Morocco

Statistics

MoroccoGeorgia
Overview
12Total Shots8
7Corners2
11Fouls5
Shots
12Total Shots8
9On Target4
3Off Target4
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls5
4Offsides1

Friendlies: Morocco 3–0 Georgia

Morocco beat Georgia 3-0 in Friendlies on November 17, 2022.

Goals: Y. En-Nesyri (5'), H. Ziyech (29'), S. Boufal (72' pen).

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.