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Morocco vs Congo DR — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Morocco
Morocco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Congo DR
Congo DR
1/21/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Laurent Pokou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Morocco44%
×Draw31%
Congo DR25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morocco
1.15
Congo DR
0.78

Morocco creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Morocco
1.50
Congo DR
1.20

allows per match

Morocco
0.36
Congo DR
0.80

finishing

Morocco+0.00on par
Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco ↓

Congo DR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Morocco or draw
75%
Morocco or Congo DR
69%
Draw or Congo DR
56%

Winning margin

Morocco wins by 2+
19%
Congo DR wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Morocco 1+ goals
68%
Morocco 2+ goals
32%
Morocco 3+ goals
11%
Congo DR 1+ goals
54%
Congo DR 2+ goals
18%
Congo DR 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Morocco (draw refunded)
64%
Congo DR (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco attack 1.50 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Congo DR attack 1.20 + Morocco defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Morocco scores more
44%
level
31%
Congo DR scores more
25%

Morocco at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Morocco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Morocco 1–1 Congo DR

Morocco and Congo DR drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Laurent Pokou in San-Pedro.