Morocco U23 2–1 Comoros: Result & Stats

Morocco U23

2 – 1

Comoros

6/6/2026

Friendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Morocco U2349%

×Draw25%

Comoros26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morocco U23Expected goals in this matchComoros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.06

Morocco U23

1.56

Comoros

1.06

Morocco U23 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.38

0.75

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Morocco U23

1.50

Comoros

1.38

allows per match

Morocco U23

0.75

Comoros

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco U23+0.00on par

Comoros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco U23 ↓

Comoros →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Morocco U23 or draw

74%

Morocco U23 or Comoros

75%

Draw or Comoros

51%

Winning margin

Morocco U23 wins by 2+

25%

Comoros wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Morocco U23 1+ goals

79%

Morocco U23 2+ goals

46%

Morocco U23 3+ goals

21%

Comoros 1+ goals

65%

Comoros 2+ goals

29%

Comoros 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Morocco U23 (draw refunded)

65%

Comoros (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Morocco U23 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Comoros away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Morocco U23 attack 1.50 + Comoros defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Comoros attack 1.38 + Morocco U23 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Morocco U23 scores more

49%

level

25%

Comoros scores more

26%

Morocco U23 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Morocco U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff