Morocco U18 0–2 Denmark U18: Result & Stats

Morocco U18

0 – 2

Denmark U18

3/22/2024

Friendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Morocco U1829%

×Draw25%

Denmark U1846%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morocco U18Expected goals in this matchDenmark U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.58

Morocco U18

1.22

Denmark U18

1.58

Denmark U18 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Morocco U18

1.33

Denmark U18

1.50

allows per match

Morocco U18

1.67

Denmark U18

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco U18+0.00on par

Denmark U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco U18 ↓

Denmark U18 →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Morocco U18 or draw

54%

Morocco U18 or Denmark U18

75%

Draw or Denmark U18

71%

Winning margin

Morocco U18 wins by 2+

12%

Denmark U18 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Morocco U18 1+ goals

70%

Morocco U18 2+ goals

34%

Morocco U18 3+ goals

12%

Denmark U18 1+ goals

79%

Denmark U18 2+ goals

47%

Denmark U18 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Morocco U18 (draw refunded)

39%

Denmark U18 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Morocco U18 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Denmark U18 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Morocco U18 attack 1.33 + Denmark U18 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Denmark U18 attack 1.50 + Morocco U18 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Morocco U18 scores more

29%

level

25%

Denmark U18 scores more

46%

Denmark U18 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Denmark U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff