Morocco U17 W 4–2 South Korea U17 W: Result & Stats

Morocco U17 W

4 – 2

South Korea U17 W

6/3/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Morocco U17 W49%

×Draw26%

South Korea U17 W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morocco U17 WExpected goals in this matchSouth Korea U17 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

Morocco U17 W

1.50

South Korea U17 W

1.00

Morocco U17 W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Morocco U17 W

1.33

South Korea U17 W

1.00

allows per match

Morocco U17 W

1.00

South Korea U17 W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco U17 W+0.00on par

South Korea U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco U17 W ↓

South Korea U17 W →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Morocco U17 W or draw

75%

Morocco U17 W or South Korea U17 W

74%

Draw or South Korea U17 W

51%

Winning margin

Morocco U17 W wins by 2+

25%

South Korea U17 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Morocco U17 W 1+ goals

78%

Morocco U17 W 2+ goals

44%

Morocco U17 W 3+ goals

19%

South Korea U17 W 1+ goals

63%

South Korea U17 W 2+ goals

26%

South Korea U17 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Morocco U17 W (draw refunded)

66%

South Korea U17 W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Morocco U17 W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

South Korea U17 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Morocco U17 W attack 1.33 + South Korea U17 W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

South Korea U17 W attack 1.00 + Morocco U17 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Morocco U17 W scores more

49%

level

26%

South Korea U17 W scores more

25%

Morocco U17 W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Morocco U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Morocco

South

Manager: A. Rimasson

Manager: Kim Eun-Jung