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Mornar vs FC Urartu — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Mornar
Mornar
CANC
16:00
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
7/10/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Švajcarija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mornar47%
×Draw23%
FC Urartu31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mornar
1.83
FC Urartu
1.45

Mornar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Mornar
1.00
FC Urartu
2.50

allows per match

Mornar
0.40
FC Urartu
2.67

finishing

Mornar+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornar ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mornar or draw
69%
Mornar or FC Urartu
77%
Draw or FC Urartu
53%

Winning margin

Mornar wins by 2+
25%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mornar 1+ goals
84%
Mornar 2+ goals
54%
Mornar 3+ goals
28%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
77%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
42%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mornar (draw refunded)
60%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mornar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mornar attack 1.00 + FC Urartu defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Urartu attack 2.50 + Mornar defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mornar scores more
47%
level
23%
FC Urartu scores more
31%

Mornar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mornar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mornar vs FC Urartu — Match Preview

Mornar face FC Urartu on July 10, 2022 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mornar host FC Urartu at Stadion Švajcarija.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.