Mornar 2–2 Arsenal Tivat: Result & Stats

Mornar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Arsenal Tivat

8/10/2025

First League · Round 2Stadion Topolica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Mornar46%

×Draw28%

Arsenal Tivat26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MornarExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tivat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.93

Mornar

1.34

Arsenal Tivat

0.93

Mornar creates 44% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 74 away

1.22

creates per match

0.99

0.87

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Mornar

1.22

Arsenal Tivat

0.99

allows per match

Mornar

0.87

Arsenal Tivat

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mornar+0.00on par

Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornar ↓

Arsenal Tivat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mornar or draw

74%

Mornar or Arsenal Tivat

72%

Draw or Arsenal Tivat

54%

Winning margin

Mornar wins by 2+

22%

Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mornar 1+ goals

74%

Mornar 2+ goals

39%

Mornar 3+ goals

15%

Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals

61%

Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals

24%

Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mornar (draw refunded)

64%

Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mornar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 91 matches

Arsenal Tivat away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mornar attack 1.22 + Arsenal Tivat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Arsenal Tivat attack 0.99 + Mornar defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mornar scores more

46%

level

28%

Arsenal Tivat scores more

26%

Mornar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mornar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff